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Hurricane forecasts: Communicating risk to communities

The 2017 hurricane season — including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria — caused devastating damage, loss of life, and disruption in the U.S. and Caribbean. Hurricane forecasts have improved significantly during the last few decades, but accurately predicting where and when a hurricane will make landfall remains challenging. It is even more challenging to predict the high wind and flooding hazards and associated impacts that different people will experience, especially with enough advance warning for coastal residents to evacuate safely before landfall.

NCAR scientist Rebecca Morss will discuss the successes of modern hurricane prediction, as well as her research to understand hurricane evacuation decision making and improve hurricane risk communication. She will also examine how new information and communication technology is transforming hazard communication and decision making, and how social media can help protect the public when hazardous weather threatens.